Batt O’Keeffee must be the worst Minister of Education in the history of the state, at least insofar as political savvy goes. He failed to defend his portfolio from cuts which increased class sizes, and now he is making every possible wrong choice about the very necessary reintroduction of fees. Having decided it must be done, he is progressively putting off the final act. According to reports today, the final decision will be delayed until after the Local and European Elections in June but students entering college in September will be liable for fees. I always thought the abolition of fees was a mistake, and that they should be brought back, but this political faffing round is going to make a pigs ear out of what was never going to be a silk purse anyway.
Delaying the final decision will not stave off the electoral consequences of the decision; quite the opposite. If the decision had been taken back when Noel Dempsey mooted it years ago, or even last January when the extent of the financial crisis was clear, it might be mostly accepted and partly forgotten by June. The plan will clearly only effect a minority of those entering college, and will probably not have an immediate sting if fees are repaid out of future earnings. But by failing to nail this down and get it done quickly, O’Keeffee has allowed it to become a running sore which worries all parents with teenage children. Even worse, this years Leaving Certs are not plunged into a sea of worry about what fees they may face even after they cross the fences of the points system. With 60,000 kids sweating it out in exam halls around the same time as the election’s, O’Keeffee has almost certainly blown 60,000 sets of family votes.
The idea that it is in some way administratively complicated is rubbish. The Dept of Education are not stupid, they knew fees was a real possibilty for years, and they and the HEA are perfectly capable of copying and modifying some version of the Australian model in short order. Other Government departments have, in the recent past, run up more complex schemes faster, so no one will really believe political excuses that it is in some way complex.
The notion now reported in the Irish Times that students entering university in late September will be liable for fees on a basis not be to decided until late June is very unfair, and adds unescessary stress to this years Leaving Cert Students. This introduces needless adminsitrative problems. If the scheme is not decided on finally until after mid June, then how will the legislation pass through the Dail and Seanad before the summer recess? Once students recieve and accept an offer of a university place from the CAO in late August, they can make the case that they have a contract with the university. For the fees to be legally part of that, I would presume the students must recieve notice of their liabilty for fees as no later than their CAO offer. This allows a period of perhaps 6 or 7 weeks between cabinet approval and CAO offers in the post to implement whatever contingency plan the Dept of Education puts together for implementation. This can be done, but it allows absolutely no margin for any error and a single error will throw the whole thing into the courts.
As to the elections, well, it just hands the whole thing to any opposition on a plate. If the government don’t make a final decision until after the elections, then every non-goverment candidate can say anything they want about the plans, forcing ministers into a constant cycle of denial. “And you could be caught for college fees too…” could be on the lips of every candidate in June, because until the decision is made, it is potentially true – at least, it is as true as any other political questions, so they might as well raise it. There has to be a real danger that the delays will undermine the issue so fatally that it may become politically impossible to proceed with it. This has all the makings of a case study in poor leadership.
The longer term electoral consequences of a Fianna Fail rout in the local elections are interesting. Apart from having many county and city councils in the hands of the assorted opposition, it also raises the question of the composition of the Seanad after the 2012 elections. If the various opposition parties can get their act together and organise their councillors to vote together, they can significantly increase their representation in the Seanad. It is hard to imagine they would win enough seats to counterbalance the 12 Taoiseach’s nominees, but they can certainly make a decent fight for it.
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